ABSTRACT
Purpose: The aim of the present study was to investigate the factors
associated with goal scoring in top class football matches. Methods: 76
goals analyzed from 31 matches from the European football Championship
in Poland-Ukraine in 2012. The SportScout performance analysis tool was
used to time code when goal scored and the associated behaviors relating
to goal scoring. Results: It was presented that 57.9 % of the goals
were scored in the second half and most of them in the last 15-min
period, while the first goal seems to play an important role in the
final result of the match. Most goals were scored during open play
(72.4%) but 27.6% scored after a set play, mainly following corner kick
and free kick. Concerning initiation zone of the attack, it was
presented that 56.6% began from the attacking half. Most goals were
scored after a cross (43.7%) while regarding goal scoring area, over 90%
of goals were scored inside the penalty area and specifically from the
area between penalty spot and goal zone (42.1%). Finally, almost ½ of
goals were scored without any pressure from defenders. Conclusions: The
present study presented guidelines to coaches in order to design
trainings similar to the actual competition and adapt the game style
with regard to match status. Moreover, coaches can use this information
to establish objectives for players and teams with a special reference
to the offensive or defensive play.
INTRODUCTION
Match analysis is the objective recording and examination of behavioural
events that occur during competition (12). The main aim of match
analysis is to identify strengths of one’s own team, which can then be
further developed, and its weaknesses, which suggest areas for
improvement. Similarly, a coach analyzing the performance of an
opposition side will use the data to identify ways to counter that
team’s strengths and exploit its weaknesses (11). A performance
indicator has been described as a selection, or combination, of action
variables that aims to define some or all aspects of a performance (19).
These indicators constitute an ideal profile that should be present in
the athletic activity to achieve success and can be used as a way to
predict the future behaviour of sporting activity (27).
However, what might be classified as a good performance in football,
such as a high proportion of possession, a higher number of goal-scoring
opportunities, shots on target or corners, does not always relate to
success. A football team can be successful and win a game or
competition, despite performing suboptimal (50). At all competitive
levels, the main concern is simply to score at least one more goal than
the opponent while in some tournament settings, goal differential may
influence attacking philosophy. A single goal can change radically, and
for a considerable amount of time, the strategic environment in which
teams interact (38). Consequently, the most identified components of the
performance in football matches are the scored goals. An analysis of
how goals are scored can reveal critical factors that will help
determine the most appropriate attacking strategy, briefly to obtain
winning formula.
Since the landmark work of Reep and Benjamin (42), many studies have
focused on goal scoring patterns in various national and international
football tournaments. Reep and Benjamin (42) showed that approximately
80% of goals scored were the result of a short sequence of three or less
passes and that 1 in 10 shots tend to lead to a goal. More recently,
Hughes and Franks (21) showed that in the 1990 and 1994 World Cup
tournaments 84% and 80% of goals respectively came from possessions of
four or less passes. In addition, 80% and 77% of the shots at goal were a
result of a sequence of four or less passes.
Jinshan and co-workers (25) reported on the characteristics of goals
from the 14th World Cup and showed that nearly 70% of all goals were
scored in the 2nd half. Armatas, Yiannakos and Sileloglou (6) studied
three World Cups (1998, 2002 and 2006) and reported that more goals were
scored as time progresses, however lower percentages than Jishan et al.
(25). Moreover, many studies have pointed out the influence in the
final score of an early goal or the first goal in a match (3, 26, 37,
51).
Bangsbo and Peitersen (7) point out the magnitude of set plays in
modern football and reported that twenty are estimated to appear, in
average, for each team in every match. Many studies from international
and domestic tournaments have reported that about 25%-40% of all goals
have been scored on set plays (3, 25, 30, 48, 49, 51).
Other research has examined the position on the pitch from which
goals are scored. In a recent study Wright et al. (50) showed that from
167 goals from English Premier League, 87% of goals were scored inside
the penalty area which is similar to the 90% observed by Olsen (36) for
the 1986 World Cup whereas Dufour (14) reported 80% for the 1990 World
Cup. Yiannakos and Armatas (51) reported that 44.4% of goals scored were
inside the penalty area, 35.2% inside the goal area, and 20.4% outside
the penalty area, for the 2004 European Championship in Portugal.
Finally, Hughes et al. (22) showed that successful teams in the 1986
Football World Cup made more attempts inside the penalty area in
comparison to unsuccessful teams.
Usually, after international tournaments, such as the European
Championship, successful teams set new trends in terms of playing style
and training. Indeed, others will tend to imitate the tactics and play
of winning teams, seeking to master those aspects of performance which
are deemed to underlie their success (21). The European Football
Championship provides an opportunity to examine the best teams and
players in Europe. Thus the purpose of the present study was to analyze
the goals scored in the European Championship in Poland-Ukraine in 2012.
METHODS
Footage from all matches from the 2012 European Championship was
obtained via recording into AVI format of the television coverage, so it
was compatible with the multisport notational analysis system
(SportScout) that was used. In all, there were 2 goalless matches
leaving 29 matches with 76 goals. One own goal was excluded from the
study. A SportScout coding template was created to allow necessary
information to be drawn from the footage by two experienced coders. All
the output data was exported from SportScout into an excel data base for
subsequent data analysis.
The following performance indicators were analyzed:
a) Time of goal scored (0-15, 16-30, 31-45+, 46-60, 61-75, 76-90+, 1st extra time, 2nd extra time)
b) Influence in the final score of the first goal (Win, Draw, Loss)
c) Type of play (Open play, Set play)
d) Style of play (Positional play, Direct play, Counter attack)
e) Type of set play (Free kick, Corner, Penalty, Throw in)
f) Initiation zone of the attack (pitch zones)
g) Number of passes leading up to goal (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8+)
h) Type of feed prior to goal scored (Pass<10m, Pass 10-20m, Cross, Shot, Individual action)
i) Scoring area (pitch zones)
j) Actions leading up to goal (One touch, Control+shot, Control+dribble+shot)
k) Shot type (Instep shot, Inside of the foot, Header, Other)
l) Existence of pressure by defenders on scorer (Pressure, No pressure)
m) Scorer’s playing position (Striker, Winger, Midfielder, Defender)
n) Goal zone (a1, a2, a3, b1, b2, b3, c1, c2, c3)
Statistical Analysis
Firstly, a descriptive analysis of the data was done (frequency,
average, standard deviation). Then, to compare distribution frequency
between independent variables chi-square tests were used, while one-way
repeated measures ANOVA and t-test were used to compare average. The
inter-rater reliability of separate observations was calculated to
guarantee the quality of the observation system. A reliability index of
0.96 was observed (intra-class correlation coefficient and kappa index).
SPSS 18 was used for data analysis (Lead Technologies Inc, USA) and the
level of significance was set at p < 0.05.
Results
Altogether 76 goals from 31 matches were analyzed which is on average
2.62±1.42 per match. Only in two of these matches no goals were scored.
At Euro 2012, 57.9% of the goals were scored in the second half and
21.1% of them in the last 15-min period as shown in Table 1. However,
there was not significant difference between the first and second half
of the match (F(1, 75) =1.918, p = .170) as well as ANOVA did not show
that frequency of goals scored were time dependent (F (5, 71) =1.065, p=
.387). As expected, results presented that the first goal is
critically important to match outcome. Moreover, of the teams that
scored first results showed that they won 75.9%, lost 6.9% and had drawn
17.2% of the matches (x2(2, 29) =24.069, p<0.001).
Most goals (72.4%) were scored during open play (x2(1,76) =15.211,
p<0.001), mainly following positional play while the rest of them
were scored after a set play (27.6%), mainly following corner kicks and
free kicks, as shown in Figure 1. Concerning initiation zone of the
attack, it was presented that 56.6% of goals began from the attacking
half, 43.4% from the defending half, while 52.6% goals began from
central zone of the pitch. No differences were found between right and
left zone, where in each zone 23.7% of goals were scored (Figure 2).
Table 2 illustrates the sequence length of ball possessions that
resulted in goal, where 61.84% of goals came from team possessions of
four passes or less. On the other hand, a sizeable amount of goals were
also preceded by passing sequence eight or more, which represented
roughly 20% of them.
Regarding the type of feed, most goals were scored after a cross (43.7%)
or a short pass (35.2%) which were significant differently ((x2(4,71)
=46.535, p<0.001) compared to feed from pass 10-20m (4.2%), shot
(7.0%) and individual action (9.9%). Moreover, results presented that
after the final pass, the scorer finished in most cases with one touch
(63.7%) which was statistically different (x2(2,71) =28.930,
p<0.001), secondly after controling the ball (19.7%) and finally
after controling and dribbling before shooting (16.9%). Figure 3 shows
the pitch zones from which goals were scored, where over 90% of goals
were scored inside the penalty area (F (1, 75) =149.224, p<0.001), (T
(1, 25) =12.216, p<0.001) and specifically from the area between
penalty spot and goal zone (42.1%). Concerning the way that the goals
were scored from the player, it was shown that instep shots accounted
for 38.67%, inside of the foot for 32.% and header for 29.33%, whereas
almost ½ of the goals (47.2%) were scored without any pressure (x2(1,72)
=0,222, p=0.637) from defending players.
As expected, most of the goals were scored from strikers (41.3%) and
wingers (29.3%), whereas midfielders (20%) and defenders (9.3%) had
diminished percentages. Finally, Figure 4 shows the goal zones where the
goals were ended.
DISCUSSION
The aim of the study was to investigate the factors associated with goal
scoring patterns in football, taking into consideration a broader range
of performance indicators. Firstly, it was presented that goals scored
were not time dependent. Although no statistical difference was
observed, more goals scored in the second half of the matches, while
15min period analysis revealed that more goals were scored in the
beginning and in the end of the second half. Game period has been
suggested as one of the factors that influence team performance (10) and
the majority of papers in the literature are in agreement with the
present study. In this way, Kirkendall and his colleagues (28) found
that goals were most common at the start of the second half and the end
of the game in World Cup 1998. Moreover, Abt, Dickson and Mummery (1)
observed an upward trend in the number of goals scored as time
progressed in 703 matches played during four seasons of the Australian
National Soccer League. The highest percentage of goals was scored in
the last 5-minute period of each half (41st-45th min. and 86th -90th
min.). Armatas and Yiannakos (3) verified that in 2006 FIFA World Cup
matches the greatest number of goals was scored between the 75th and
90th minutes, while Yiannakos and Armatas (51) in their study for Euro
2004 found that significant more of goals were scored in second half.
The results of the present study could be attributed in tactical and
physiological factors. In a recent study, Pratas, Volossovitch and
Ferreira (39), found that teams perform significantly fewer direct plays
in the first half and make significantly more shots in the second half
of Portuguese league matches. One reason could be that players consider
rapid movements with the ball to involve risk and therefore attempt less
such actions during the first half, when the match result is not yet
decided (10). Additionally, Reilly (43) reports that play may become
urgent towards the end of match as teams chase a result, thus players
are more willing to take greater risks towards the end of a match in
order to affect an outcome (1). It is also possible that the losing team
pushes players forward in order to create scoring opportunities,
thereby scoring themselves or conceding further goals (44).
Several studies have reported a decrease in physical performance in the
second half of matches and explained that this is due to physical
fatigue (8, 40). According to Mohr et al. (33), the time – motion
analyses and performance measures during match-play, fatigue or reduced
performance seem to occur at three different stages in the game: a)
after short-term intense periods in both halves; b) in the initial phase
of the second half; and c) towards the end of the game. Moreover, it
has been observed that the amount of high-intensity running is reduced
in the final 15 min of a top-class football match (32) and that jumping,
sprinting, and intermittent exercise performance is lowered after
versus before a football match (33).
Preparing for a team to last for 90 minutes does not reduce the need to
be alert right from the kickoff. It is a terrible setback to concede a
goal in the first minute and, of course, extreme boost for the scoring
team. The results of the present study highlighted the significance of
the first goal to the match outcome; it was shown that when a team
scored first, it won 75.9% of the matches. In previous studies it was
presented that teams which scored first went on to win 73.5% in 1994
World Cup tournament, 59.4% of the matches where there was a winner in
2002 World Cup (34) and 73.21% in 2002 World Cup 2006 (3).
Research on psychological momentum agrees with the present results.
Moreover, it has shown that early success in a competition (e.g. scoring
first) is a strong predictor of outcome in football (26, 37).
Performance after the first goal is controlled by two responses: firstly
how well the team which scores the first goal retains its advantage and
secondly how well the team which concedes the first goal counters its
disadvantage (35).
Thus when leading, it is important to keep pressing for more. In
training, therefore, a coach should subject a team to a situation of
playing while in the lead so the players develop the mental strength
that is needed to sustain a lead. This can be done through simulated
handicapped play, where a team starts a game knowing that they are
either ahead by one or trailing by one or two goals. This will enable
the coach to assess the reaction of the players in the different
situations (35).
In relation to type of play, most goals scored after open play (72.4%)
and almost 1/3 after set plays (27.6%). This coincides with the results
of James, Mellalieu and Taylor (23), Lago and Martin (30) and Taylor,
James and Mellalieu (48) who showed that about 25%-40% of all goals have
been scored on set plays. Our findings provide further evidence for the
importance of practicing set plays because of their potential
productivity, despite their relatively low occurrence in comparison to
open play opportunities. Concerning the style of play that was used to
score a goal, the majority of goals were scored after positional attacks
(60%) but significant percentage was scored after counter attack (20%)
and direct play (20%).
In a recent study, that examined the goal scoring patterns in Euro 2004
presented similar results (positional attacks: 44.1%, counter attacks:
20.3%, set plays: 35.6%) (51). Also, according to Dufour (14) 88% of the
goals in the World Cup Tournament in 1990 came from an organized
offense and 12% from a counter-attack. A more recent study (4) found
that despite the fact that frequency of counter-attacks in modern
football is low (4.9%), they are considered to be more effective than
organized offense moves; the following percentages are indicative and
support such a proposition: 16.9% of counter-attacks lead to a goal
whereas only 11.1% of positional attacks are successful.
Concerning the set play’s effectiveness, the data collected in present
study are similar to those found by other authors and allow us to assert
that corner kick (47.6%) and free kick (33.3%) are the plays that are
performed on set pieces which result in the highest number of goals.
Thus, free kicks and corner kicks have been shown to be the greatest
source of goals, producing 46% and 13% of goals respectively at the 1994
World Cup (46) and 50% and 47.6% at the 1998 competition (15) and 33.3%
and 26.7% at the 2006 competition (5).
Regarding the initiation zone of the attack, it was presented that most
goals began from the attacking half while no differences were found
between right and left zone. Jankovic and his colleagues (24) studied
Euro 2008 and presented that 28.8%, 38.3% and 31.2% of goals initiated
from the defensive third, middle third and attacking third respectively.
Moreover, recent studies presented that in the 5 minutes before a goal
was scored, the scoring team had significantly more possession in the
middle and attacking thirds compared to the half average (41, 45). The
authors suggested a definite shift and territorial advantage for the
team about to score in the 5 minutes leading to the goal.
Some studies (9, 42) showed that goals occur when teams played with
direct method. Particularly, Reep, and Benjamin (42) found that
approximately 80% of goals resulted from a sequence of three passes or
less. Moreover, Hook and Hughes (17) found that successful teams
utilized longer possessions than unsuccessful teams in Euro 2000,
although no significant differences were found in the number of passes
used in attacks leading to a goal. These authors suggested that keeping
the ball for longer durations was indicative of success. However, in a
similar study, Stanhope (47) found that time in possession of the ball
was not indicative of success in the 1994 World Cup. Jones, et al. (27)
showed that successful teams in the English Premier league typically had
longer possessions than unsuccessful teams, irrespective of the match
status (evolving score). The results of the present study indicated that
most goals (61.84%) resulted from a sequence of four passes or less;
however 20% of goals resulted from a passing sequence of eight or more.
Consequently, with the evolution of football, other styles of play have
emerged, with more sequence of passes before the shot, i.e., teams try
to find the best moment to attack with efficacy, maintaining the ball
and the control of the game, waiting for the mistake or equilibrium
break of the opponent (13). Therefore, there is probably not a principle
that determines that ball possessions with few or many passes provide
more or less shots to goal, once both ways can create kicks or headers
conditions, depending on the match situations.
As proposed from previous resources (3, 50, 51), our findings showed
that most goals were scored when the type of feed was from a cross
(43.7%). Griffiths (16) found that France, who was at that time
considered the best international team in the World, created
significantly more crosses than their opponents, while Lago et al. (29)
proposed that crosses is one of the variables that better differentiate
winning, losing and drawing teams in a global way. Theis (49) supported
that wing offensive play with long passes is a primary offensive tactic
in order to face defending deep. Often, defenders used to commit errors
in such cases because they observe the player that has the possession of
the ball and not the unmarked players. Therefore, training should focus
on improving long passes inside penalty area, preparing players to have
the ability to score goals after an air ball but also defend better it
such situations (3).
The results of the present study supported previous findings that more
than 90% of goals were scored from within the penalty area. The current
value is similar to the 90% observed by Olsen (36) for the 1986 World
Cup, 87% by Wright and his colleagues (50) for English Premier League
and 83.4% by Armatas and Yiannakos (3) for the 2006 World Cup. Moreover,
it was presented that there seems to be an ‘effective’ area inside the
penalty from which 42.1% goals scored. Hughes and Franks (20) have
previously identified the key objective of getting the ball into a
‘prime target area’, which was defined as the area that consists of the
length of the six-yard box and is from the penalty spot to within two
yards inside the six-yard box. Hughes (18) stated that about four goals
in every five scored from crosses are hit from this area, while Carling
et al. (12) found that 37% were scored from the same area in the 2002
World Cup. The increased rate of recurrence of offensive actions and
effectiveness inside the penalty area is justified by the fact that this
area is nearer to goalpost and outside of the goalkeeper’s reaches
(31). Thus, training should be focused on drills that contain shots
inside the penalty area under match conditions but also on defensive
response from defenders and goalkeeper.
With relation to the goal scorer, we found that 41.3% and 29.3% of goals
were scored by strikers and wingers respectively. In a recent study,
Acar and his colleagues (2) concluded that forward players scored 57% of
goals in the 2006 World Cup while Mitrotasios and colleagues (31)
studied Greek SuperLeague and concluded that strikers scored 47.7% of
goals. In the present study, strikers and wingers were discriminated
because of the massive usage of the wings due to systems of play with
winger players (1-4-2-3-1 and 1-4-3-3). Moreover, in most cases the
player scored the goal with one touch (63.7%) and almost ½ of the goals
were scored without any pressure from defenders, however the above
results could not be comparable because of the lack in literature.
CONCLUSIONS
The main objective of this study was to analyze the performance
parameters of the most successful teams in Europe which competed in the
final tournament of the European Championship in 2012, in order to give
clues for specific tactical issues and training guidelines that coaches
and competitive players need to carry out to be successful. The results
demonstrate that top European teams score 1/4 of goals after set plays,
initiate attacks from offensive half and there is not a principle that
determines that ball possessions with few or many passes provide more
goals. Moreover, there seems to be a critical zone inside the penalty
area from which most goals are scored, crosses identified as a relevant
factor for team goals and almost ½ of the goals were scored without any
pressure from defenders.
APPLICATIONS IN SPORT
The present study presented values that can be used as normative data to
design and evaluate practices and matches for football performance in a
collective way. Likewise, it will allow coaches to design training
exercises similar to the actual competition and adapt the game style
with regard to match status. Moreover, coaches can use this information
to establish objectives for players and teams. These objectives can be
oriented in a positive way (things or number of things to try to
achieve) or in a negative way (things or number of things to try to
avoid) with a special reference to the offensive or defensive play.
The limitation of the present study is that it is based on one specific
championship (2012 European football championship). The need for
constant record and evaluation of football characteristics is prevalent,
since it presents continuous evolvement; thus further research
concerning goal analysis should include different competitions that
involve other contextual factors (game location in a balanced schedule,
continental differences, match status, etc.).
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